Minggu, 24 Oktober 2010

NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMICS IN 2010 AND INDONESIAN ECONOMY

By Nugroho SBM

The Nobel Prize Committee has announced the 3 winners Nobel Prize in economics that are Peter A Diamond (70 years), a professor at MIT, Dale T Mortensen (71 years), a professor at North Western University, and Christopher A Pissarides (62 years) a professor at the London School of Economics. They are considered meritorious has found models of Diamond-Mortensen-Pisarides (DMP), which could explain why in many countries, including developed countries, unemployment remains high despite the high economic growth.

So far, unemployment in conventional economic theory is always regarded as an excess number of people willing to work (labor supply) over the need or demand for labor. But this theory fails to explain why high levels of unemployment in developed countries occured.

Through the DMP model, the three winners of 2010 Nobel economics tried to offer an analysis of unemployment which they call the "Theory of Friction". Unemployment occurs because of friction or friction caused by the various discrepancies. First, the discrepancy between the expectations of job seekers with those who need labor. As a result, on the one hand many companies can not obtain the best employees who according to his needs. But on the other hand many job seekers with the skills and education who will not work because it does not match the salary and job offer.

In the case of friction due to a mismatch between supply and labor demand is actually for those who have studied macro economics is not new. The discrepancy in economic theory could be due to education or skills mismatch between job seekers with the education and skills needed by institution or company. The discrepancy is also due to the imperfections of information that occurred in the job market.

The second discrepancy is between the government policy in the financial sector and the needs of job creation. Pissarides - one of his economics Nobel Prize winner 2010 - had criticized U.S. government policies and many other governments in the world to bail out the financial firms who only plays in financial instruments that do not absorb the labor force. Instead the companies in the real sector absorb the labor force do not get access to funds or adequate bailout.

The third discrepancy concerns the economic policies that many countries give allowances or vouchers for the unemployed. That policy - the three winners of Nobel economics by 2010 - a very counter-productive to efforts to reduce the number of unemployed. The policy was counterproductive to efforts to decrease the unemployment rate because people though actually capable of and there is a chance but it will not work because of unemployment could still get a guarantee from the government.

For Indonesia
For Indonesia, what's been developed by the three winners of the Nobel Economics in 2010 would have been very relevant. Currently in Indonesia there are at least 26 million people openly unemployed (meaning at all does not work). Interestingly, most of the openly unemployed are now more educated. Unemployment in Indonesia (those that did not work) at this time according to the level of education are mostly high school graduates by 36 percent and "defeat" those who are primary school graduates at 32.74 percent.

In addition, unemployed graduates also do not lose large amounts of till now amounted to 400,000 people. Although relatively small, but the unemployed with tingakt undergraduate education is still alarming because of the small amount of scholars but the level of unemployment is high.
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The question arises whether there is a discrepancy between education education job seekers with the education needed by those who need labor? The answer is yes. High school graduates are not prepared to immediately find a job but are expected to continue into higher education. Graduated from SMK (Vocational High School) was the one who actually prepared to work right away. So actually there is something wrong here. Many high school graduates who apparently because of "prestige" even though his parents are not able to prefer a school in high school. When he graduated high school they can not go to college because tuition is more expensive now (including in public universities). So it should be encouraged for students who can not afford to study at vocational high school so that they ready to work.

Especially for college, it needs a true introspection education curriculum is in conformity with that required by the market? Age was busy talking about education that "Link and Match" (related and appropriate) to the needs of the labor market. Apparently this needs to be reviewed again today.

About the discrepancy between government policy in the financial sector with the needs of job creation is also relevant to Indonesia. Many times the government and BI bailout for the banking sector - the last bailout for Century Bank, a number of very large. But the government is not so concerned with companies in the real sector to absorb a lot of manpower.

While the incompatibility of allowances for the unemployed with policies to reduce unemployment, is still relevant. Now this government prefers to provide direct cash assistance (BLT) for the community than the creation of more labor-intensive projects. Although the provision of BLT need in an emergency but in the long run will make people lazy to work or seek work.

(Nugroho SBM, a lecturer at Economics faculty at Diponegoro University, Semarang) ecturer

Selasa, 18 Mei 2010

CHALLENGE OF NEW FINANCE MINISTER

By Nugroho SBM

Controversy of the resignation of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati (SMI) to become the Managing Director of the World Bank is still ongoing. Actually there are many things more important that need to be discussed, namely a number of challenges facing the Indonesian economy which later faced by the new Finance Minister.

The first challenge is how to make the real sector can move quickly. To be able to move quickly the real sector required a large injection of funds from banks in the form of credit. Credits can be used if the loan rate affordable by the business world or the real sector. Until now, loan interest rates are still perched in the range of 13-16 percent. Whereas the BI rate as the reference is trimmed to 6.25 percent.Due to the high loan rate then the number ratio between loan and deposit or loan to deposit ratio (LDR) of banks in Indonesia is still ranged between 60 and 70 per cent.This means that the total customer deposits in the banking funds disbursed by the bank in the form of loans only 60-70 percent. Value of banking loans disbursed this year estimated at about Rp 210 trillion (BI version).Whereas the government's 2010 budget to target loans channeled Rp 450 trillion to encourage economic growth target for 2010 of 5.3 percent

There are some factors that cause mortgage interest rates remain high, which is a territory under the Ministry of Finance of the high interest rates of state bonds or debentures (SUN) issued by MOF.
Until now, interest rates still ranged from 10 until 15 per cent. As a result, banks preferred to place the funds from third parties in bonds or risk-free bond because more than if they are channeled into credit.

Very Slow

The second challenge is how to create cash flow budget as one of the main economic driver. Before the era of reform in all areas must be recognized that government funds from the state budget was one of the main economic driver. One reason is the current release of funds from the state budget on time and very fast.

It's quick disbursement is often followed by leakage of funds here and there, but nevertheless the rapid melting is very helpful to move the economy.
Currently the state budget disbursement has been very slow and there are several suspected causes. First, many public officials afraid to get caught because of the corruption case was not careful in the use of state budget funds or budget.
Actions which violate the relevant procedures although personally do not use their money, could be categorized as corruption. It is an irony that the prevention of corruption it causes serious obstacles within the state budget or the budget disbursement.Second, the bureaucracy in the use of state budget funds and the budget is more complicated. Some examples could be mentioned for purposes of buying a computer just USD 6 million in a government agency takes 20 documents, for the disbursement of salary required five persons concerned, a very complicated tender procedures, and others.
So the solution, the new minister must be brave proposals to the competent parties to revise various laws that inhibit the release of funds the state budget and budget, without compromising the transparency and good governance

The third challenge was considering revamping the tax is a tax principal in the state budget revenues. Approximately 70 percent of state revenues in the budget (in the state budget in 2009) comes from taxes.
Positive things that have made Sri Mulyani was to act firmly against companies owned by government officials, the Bakrie Group, which tries mengemplang taxes.

Another thing that is still a big homework until Ministry of Finance today is combating the mafia tax. Lack of salary as a cause of corruption and mafia behavior in the tax department's environment, particularly in the Directorate General of Taxation, who responded with the remuneration had been unsuccessful in preventing corruption and the mafia tax.

In addition to the three challenges, the homework to be completed new Finance Minister, there are several other requirements that must be possessed. For example he must be from professionals and not so free from political parties from interest groups so that policies can be objective.

Several times a presidential spokesman has stressed this, live-awaited realization. Besides honesty, she also must be firm and not wishy-washy decisions in order not to destabilize the economy. Finance minister should also be an honest figure. (10)


- Nugroho SBM SE MSP, a researcher at Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA)Center Diponegoro University and a lecturer at Diponegoro University Faculty of Economics

Selasa, 20 April 2010

ERADICATE BROKERS FOR TAX CASES

By Nugroho SBM

Brokers for Tax Cases( In Bahasa Makelar Kasus- shortened to Markus)- which has recently thrown the first time by Susno Duaji - became a hot public discussion. Specific things that become the topic is how Gayus Tambunan a civil servant category III in the Directorate General of Taxation could have such great wealth, such as houses and luxury cars. Gayus such wealth was allegedly because he was a broker for tax cases.

The behavior of such unscrupulous tax officials certainly not new. At the time of Prophet Jesus, for example, tax officials or the time it was known as a highly unpopular tax collectors by the community, even if later there was a convert and a disciple whom Jesus in Matthew and Zacchaeus. Why is the tax collector was a very hated? Because they usually charge more tax than they should and the advantages that go into their private pockets. In addition, they also conduct bargaining on taxes to be paid to the specific benefits for them.

When Brokers for Tax Cases are not immediately eradicated completely, there are some parties who would be harmed. First, the government. Government disadvantaged because of lower tax revenues than they should. Naughty taxpayers - by brokers for tax cases - will pay lower taxes than they should. Yet tax revenue is a mainstay of government revenue. Current tax revenues of about 70 to 80 percent of government revenue in the budget.

Second, the business world. Business world is disadvantaged because of taxes paid to be uncertain. Tax paid by employers to be uncertain because they will depend on negotiations with the tax cases brokers. Survey of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2003 showed there were some constraints on business in Indonesia. These obstacles based on sequence is as follows: macroeconomic instability, economic policy uncertainty, national corruption, local corruption, tax rates, tax and administration. Seems there is a link to one another in ADB's version of business barriers, which are national and local corruption and tax rates and tax administration. High tax rates and complicated tax administration has led to corruption in local and national level.

Third, the society as a whole. Tax Cases Brokers disadvantaged communities because they made government tax revenue will be lower than they should. The next result is the government does not have enough funds to build infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, water supply and for subsidies to public services such as education and health.

Causes of Tax Cases Brokers

So what was the cause of Tax Cases Brokers? First, the tax administration which is still complex. The complexity of the tax administration has opened up opportunities for unscrupulous tax officials to act as a tax markus scare the taxpayers and ultimately extort the taxpayers.

Second, high tax rates. Many people complain about high tax rates in Indonesia. The high tax rates is a chance for the occurrence of fraud and tax evasion was done through the Tax Cases Brokers. Arthur Laffer, an economist and economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan, had warned that tax rates are too high it will reduce government revenue from taxes because tax rates are too high encourage tax avoidance (the term to reduce or relieve the tax burden to be paid officially, eg through the application of tax exemption), tax evasion (reduce or relieve the tax burden by way of unlawful / illegal), and decreased productivity.

Third, still the occurrence of direct contact between taxpayers and tax officers in matters of taxation in Indonesia. This direct contact allows individual taxpayers and tax officers bargaining about the amount of taxes to be paid. Tax officers in this case a broker can be a tax

Fourth, weak law enforcement. During the time in Indonesia in many areas - that is not only the field of taxation alone, law enforcement is very weak. Because law enforcement is very weak then people tend to act that is against the law. This is in accordance with the opinion of philosophers and economists Jeremy Bentham that in the act of people will embrace understand Utilitarianism is an idea where the acts people will minimize the pain and costs, and maximize pleasure, happiness, and profits. If acting as Brokers of Tax Cases; pain, suffering and cost (in the form of such sanctions of imprisonment and sanctions the social) is smaller than pleasure, happiness, and the profits so fair a lot of people interested in living as Brokers for Tax Cases.

How should?

Then how should eradicate Brokers for Tax Cases? First, of course, tax administration should continue to be addressed. Indeed the existing efforts of the government especially the Directorate General of Taxation to simplify procedures for tax payments, but still many taxpayers who are not comfortable with the procedure now. This is evident from the low return rate returns, many taxpayers who prefer to hand over their tax affairs to the tax consultant, and is still reluctance for people to be taxpayers pay taxes later if the procedure is difficult.

Second, the problem of high tax rates needed to examine how the optimal tax rate could maximizes government revenue from taxes. Optimal point is not too high but also not too low. By using a mathematical model of Arthur Laffer curve, the optimal tariff will be easily found. It had no discourse to Personal income tax rate will be unified into a single rate that is much simpler to administer and can be considered to maximize government revenue from taxes. But this single rate if not careful will cause injustice to the taxpayer. This means that expenses be unfair to pay taxes for each income group.

Third, the key that seems cliche but it needs to be disclosed here is the need for strict law enforcement against violators of the law in the areas of taxation including tax cases the broker. This legal action was not only until the defendant is then due to an appeal and an appeal can finally be free. But it must be shown that the offender was sentenced finally. In many countries make it harder for criminals to appeal and appeal, the fee for an appeal and an appeal is very expensive. Another advantage of the high costs of an appeal and this appeal is to be as one alternative source of government revenue. With the prosecution of the criminals of this tax, an anecdote which says that Indonesia is a nation of suspects and the accused but not convicted will no longer exist.

(Nugroho SBM, FE Lecturer and Researcher at Policy Impact Assessment or Regulatory Impact Assessment / RIA Diponegoro University, Semarang)

Selasa, 13 April 2010

Educated unemployed, who is wrong?

By: Nugroho SBM

Talking about unemployment, there is an interesting phenomenon to ponder the problem of educated unemployment in Indonesia. Based Sakernas (National Labor Force Survey 2006) unemployment in Indonesia (those who did not work) according to the level of education is mostly high school graduates by 36 percent and "defeat" those who are primary school graduates at 32.74 percent. This means that it broke the fact all this time that unemployment in Indonesia is largely because of low education to those who have only a maximum of primary school graduates.

The other fact, never became a major debate in the year 2007 and till now still relevant is the existence of unemployment with a relatively high education graduates of 400,000 people (the position in 2007). Although in absolute numbers of unemployed graduates is quite small but this is pretty amazing phenomenon because there has been an assumption in society that because it is "a rare creature" then scholars will easily find a job. But the fact is it did not. See 2 (two) phenomena such educated unemployed, the question is: is there any one of our educational system or other factors?

High School Graduates

Answer the question who is wrong may not be generalizable. For the educated unemployed high school graduates than there are some errors in the Indonesian education system. During these high school graduates did not have much choice means they have to continue on to college. For those who can not go on to college, can not work because it is not directly supplied by prkatis skills to work.
To overcome this problem could perhaps exemplified, for example, the existing education system in Australia. In Australia, high school applied for 4 years (meaning that there is grade 1 to grade 4). After 3 years or at the end of 3rd grade students who performed the evaluation should not continue to the grade 4 and who is allowed to continue to class 4. They are not allowed to proceed to grade 3 is considered not have a stock of intellectual and analytical skills sufficient to proceed to university, it is suggested into the kind of polytechnics that provide a practical skill. While they are allowed up to class 4 is considered a stock of intellectual and analytical skills sufficient to proceed to university. Although allowed to continue on to university, high school graduates this class 4 may also choose to continue to polytechnics that provide practical skills. I think Indonesia can implement this kind of education system to cope with unemployment high school graduates.

Actually, the number of unemployed high school graduates who indicated a prestige factor in situ. That is, many junior high school student who just knows that this is now quite difficult to find work and therefore they are actually quite safe to resume at SMK (Vocational High School), which ensures he gets a job. Eg vocational fields are still many needs are machinery, electronics, electrical, pharmaceutical, taxation, computers, and many more. But nevertheless they remain desperate to continue to high school because high school is considered more prestigious than the CMS. It recently aired television ads that often led to junior high school graduates go on to vocational school for no less prestigious than vocational high school and ensure a more certain to get a job. But that step to be followed by other propaganda efforts eg through investment in family values.

Another side of the number of unemployed high school graduates is the fact a lot of high school graduates who could not go to university. The main reason they could not proceed to university education is the cost factor. Because if the capacity limitation factor which has implications on the terms of intellectual ability seemed unlikely. This is evident from the many who complained about the lack of private universities so that students actually without tespun prospective students will be accepted.

Expensive cost factor as a major factor can not be high school graduates go on to university has become increasingly worse after the earlier public universities are considered public university where the tuition fee even this cheap now become "private". Being a "Private" means that a subsidy from the government revoked the tuition fee and the university became an independent body or in other words, such as private universities. We do not know what exactly the idea behind this privatization of public universities. Because the father of economics Adam Smith is considered to teach economics or economic liberalism, which is based on market mechanisms as a regulator clearly pointed out that education is one of the matters which must be held by the state. Or worry a lot when the first party is now the new education minister was first appointed as an economist he will "economize" proved education today? I really do not know. Fortunately the law on "Badan Hukum Pendidikan" (BHP) has been revoked, then the subsidy should be given back to the university.

Graduated Unemployer

How about the graduated unemployer? Does the education system to blame for this? According to me not. Comparing current conditions with conditions in 70 Years to 80 Years when Indonesia was enjoying booming crude oil. At that time a student who had not completed college S1 has been offered a job. So they want to work in institutions that offer such work, these agencies do the "debt bondage" that is by giving a scholarship or salary advances. This suggests that scholars had been offered occupation because there was a field of work although they had been graduated yet.

In contrast to the present. Currently there are no or rare new investment in Indonesia. So if there are unemployed not because of university graduates who can not educate but do not mistake that the government can provide employment for its citizens including those who graduated.

The problem is: why no new investment in Indonesia? Many factors, but few of them: first, high-cost economy in an investment still occurs today with the official and unofficial levies especially in this era of regional autonomy. Second, the absence of long-term direction of economic development in Indonesia. There Long-Term Development Plan (RPJP) until the year 2025. But when read carefully, there is no clear direction on how the long-term direction of the Indonesian economy. Whereas the long-term direction is very important because the investment is long-term time perspective. Third, policy inconsistencies still occur. It means that between the rules can be much different with its implementation or application in various levels of government can vary. For example one-stop services in the investment license or OSS (One Stop Service) interpretation can be different for each region. There are just a public relations office but there has really one-stop service office. If you want to unemployed sarja lost then the government should encourage investment and to encourage investment, the barriers to invest should be abolished.